Philosophy 103: Quiz 4             name: Key

Part 1: Key Concepts

Match the terms in the center column with the best fitting characterization or definition from the right.  Answer in the leftmost column. (1 pt. each)

1. _G

2. _F__ 

3. _B

4. _L

5. _D

6. _A

7. _E

8. _J

9. _I

10. _K

11. _H

12. _C

1. analogs


2. argument from analogy


3. frequency argument  


4. frequency statement 

5. inductive argument 

6.  inductive generalization 

7. inductive strength

8.  margin of error 

9.  random sampling

10.  self-selected sampling 

10.  snowball sampling 

12.  total available evidence

A.  argument that draws general conclusions about an entire population from samples taken of members of the population.
B.   Argument whose negative form is as follows: <50% of F are G; A is F; :. A is not G. 
C.  all of the beliefs and experiences that you as the evaluator have.
D.  an argument in which the premises are intended to make the conclusion probable.
E.  measure of the degree of support that a non deductive argument provides for its conclusion.

F.  inductive argument of this form: A is F & G; B is F; :. B is G.
G.  the two things that are said to similar in an analogical argument
H.  when new members are added to a sample on the basis of some relation to members already included in the sample.
I.  selecting a sample so that every member of the population has an equal chance to be in it.
J. in the conclusion of an inductive generalization, the range of frequencies within which the property is said to occur.
K.  when members of the population decide for themselves whether to be included.
L.  statement of the form n of F are G where n is a number expressing a proportion.

Part 2: Multiple Choice

  1. In a correctly formed inductive generalization that satisfies the total evidence conditions, where the sampling premise states that 60% of the sample has the property, and the conclusion has a margin of error appropriate for the size of the sample, what logical strength is achieved (or confidence level warranted) by the argument?

    1. 40%
    2. 95%
    3. 60%
    4. Can’t tell

  2. In a correctly formed analogical argument that satisfies the total evidence conditions what logical strength is achieved (or confidence level warranted) by the argument?

    1. 40%
    2. 95%
    3. 60%
    4. Can’t tell.

  3. According to Wilson, arguments that appeal to the pronouncements of authorities in their fields of expertise are generally best clarified as …

    1. Analogical arguments.
    2. Positive frequency arguments.
    3. Negative frequency arguments.
    4. Inductive generalizations.

  4. Which of the following is the standard criticism, mentioned by Wilson, of generalizations about American sexual practices based on the sampling done by Alfred Kinsey in the 1940s & 50s?

    1. Kinsey did dirty sampling.
    2. Kinsey used snow-ball sampling.
    3. Kinsey’s sample sizes were too small.
    4. Kinsey’s data is old and out-dated.

  5. What form of inductive argument has a frequency statement for its conclusion?

    1. Positive frequency argument.
    2. Negative frequency argument.
    3. Inductive generalization.
    4. Both A and B.

  6. The logical strength of analogical arguments depends on

    1. The frequency stated in the frequency premise.
    2. The truth of background generalizations.
    3. The sample size as compared to the margin of error.
    4. All of the above.

  7. What kind of inductive arguments are characterized by Wilson as “logical borrowers and psychological lenders”?

    1. Analogical arguments.
    2. Positive frequency arguments.
    3. Negative frequency arguments.
    4. Inductive generalizations.

  8. In a correctly formed positive frequency argument that satisfies the total evidence conditions, where the premise states a 60% frequency, what logical strength is achieved (or confidence level warranted) by the argument?

    1. 40%
    2. 95%
    3. 60%
    4. Can’t tell



Part 3: Exercises name:

A. Clarify and fully evaluate two of the following three arguments. (10 pts. each)

  1. Most teenage girls now aspire to professional occupations such as doctor or lawyer, according to a report by Helen Farmer, a psychologist at the University of Illinois.  Farmer queried 1,294 9th and 12th graders from nine Illinois schools.  By way of contrast, less than half of the boys had similar aspirations. {HINT: Ignore the contrast}

2.       DW: Can't tell because we don't know how the sampling was done.

         Logic: failed/weak induction due to nonrandom sampling

        Form: correct form for inductive generalization

        Total Evidence:

         sample size -- can't tell exactly but assuming a 50/50 split, about it would be around 650 which is probably enough for the degree of imprecision implied by "most"


         LH: poor since girls from other states and even other schools had no chance to be included & nothing is said about efforts to stratify: seems like grab sampling.

         DW: can't tell without further information about the sampling procedure.

  1. Expressions of shock and sadness came from the other coaches and administrators following the announcement by Tulane President Eamon Kelly that the school planned to drop its basketball program in the wake of the alleged gambling scheme and newly discovered NCAA violations.  Coach Killingsworth of TCU said: "I think they should deal with the problem, not do away with it.  If that had something like that happen in the English department would they do away with the program?"
    1. Clarification: EXERCISES 15 (a)
      • 1. The English Dept. is a college program and they shouldn't eliminate it due to a scandal.
      • [2. Basketball is a college program.]
      • C. :. They shouldn’t eliminate Basketball due to a scandal.
    2. Evaluation: unsound due to failed logic
      • Truth

1.      Almost certainly true: We have Coach K’s word for it. Furthermore, almost every U.S. college, has an English program and a U.S. college that eliminated its English Dept. would certainly be ill advised to do so since they’d probably lose their accreditation.

2.      Almost certainly true: we have it on the authority of Pres. E. K & it’s inferable from Tulane’s having a basketball coach that Tulane has a basketball program.